NFL Week 1 – Betting Preview

Can we get you JJ Watt money? No…but hopefully some of our advice in our Betting Preview will help you out at the bookies!


It’s finally upon us. The Seattle Seahawks beatdown of the Green Bay Packers on Thursday evening was a perfectly-sized starter portion, ahead of the main course of week 1 NFL action this Sunday.
And most importantly (for some), with the return of the NFL, comes more ways to lose win money.
Rather than X’s and O’s, we’ll take a look at the odds and spreads to find the best selections and hopefully make it a profitable season of American Football punting.
We won’t drown you in tips for every game, we’ll pick out just a handful of selections that appeal the most!

BUFFALO BILLS @ CHICAGO BEARS
cutty1
The Bears and Cutler have no excuse not to be good!

We’ll start with game one on the schedule – Bills @ Bears. CHICAGO -6.5 PTS leaps off the screen immediately. A home win by a touchdown or more; Jake Cutler and his deadly duo outside Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey vs. yet-another 1st round quarterback bust EJ Manuel.
First and foremost, Buffalo. EJ Manuel, to put it kindly to the Florida State alum, was pretty average in pre-season.
Now pre-season is pre-season, but Manuel is about to enter Chi-town with what is set to become Buffalo’s best offensive player in Sammy Watkins, ailing with injury, even before he makes his NFL regular season bow.
Aside from Watkins, nobody else in that Bills receiving corps strikes fear into you, and with the addition of veteran defensive end Jared Allen rushing the passer, the Bears could jump into the top 10 this year in pass defence.
Fantasy owners have been scrambling for Marshall and Jeffrey, with the pair set to have a big second year in Marc Trestman’s offence. They’re also very good each way shouts with regards to the antepost market for most receiving yards – if that tickles your fancy.
Not forgetting the versatile Matt Forte, he seems taylor-made for this offence with his excellent receiving skills out of the backfield offering a great safety blanket for Cutler, if for some insane reason the guys on the outside are covered.
So, CHICAGO -6.5 PTS will get our Week 1 accumulator rolling as Chicago wins it by 10 points despite the best efforts of Bills RB CJ Spiller, who by the way, looks overpriced at 11/1 to score the first touchdown of the game, given his home run hitting ability.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ ST LOUIS RAMS
Sean Hill
Hill may be a serviceable QB but light it up he will not!

Ok, can these teams between them score 44 points? No they won’t, so that’s why UNDER 43.5 PTS is the next selection on the bet slip.
The answer is no, for a handful of reasons. Firstly, quarterback. Shaun Hill is in for Sam Bradford after another ACL tear for 5th-year man. Now Hill is no slouch, but he isn’t exactly helped by his weapons outside, even with a somewhat rejuvenated Kenny Britt catching passes in St Louis.
Zac Stacy is the bellcow for the Rams at running back and expect a heavy dose of the sophomore, as well as Benny Cunningham, as St Louis looks to “manage the game” and more importantly to us, manage the clock, relying on what is set to be a feared defensive line this term.
For Minnesota, some dude named Adrian Peterson is once again ready to tote the rock. With Teddy Bridgewater waiting in the wings, quarterback Matt Cassell is on the hotseat, more than likely leaving it to Adrian and a bit of magic from another sophomore Cordarelle Paterson to get the job done.
St Louis wins this one 20-17 bagging the UNDER 43.5 PTS in the process. As a wise man once told me – keep it simple stupid. 5/1 for Peterson to find paydirt first will do nicely for first touchdown scorer purposes.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Ertz could be a good to open the floodgates against the Jags
Ertz could be a good to open the floodgates against the Jags

There will come a point this season that the Jaguars will be a fantastic bet at a fantastic price. The only man who knows when that day will be is head coach Gus Bradley. In case you didn’t get it, I’m referring to the game that Blake Bortles finally gets the nod at signal caller over Chad Henne.
So anyway, PHILADELPHIA -10 PTS. This selection is based purely on Chip Kelly’s offence. If this was Jacksonville playing maybe around 28 other teams in the NFL, we’d lean on the Jags and their retooled defence under defensive wizard Bradley.
But giving the maestro that is Kelly a whole off-season to get his guys into shape and a whole 10 days to gameplan for the Jags, just how can this Jags team score enough to keep up?
Let’s cut right to the chase here, does this Jaguars offence score enough to stay within 10 points of Philly’s offence come the final whistle? An Eagles squad who averaged 417 yards a game last term (good for 2nd in the NFL) against a Jags squad who managed only 293 yards a game (good for 31st in the NFL).
Foles’ cannon arm, McCoy the most elusive back in the league, Darren Sproles the best receiving back in the league, a healthy Jeremy Maclin, an athletic freak in Zach Ertz. An array of weapons. On the flip side…
Chad Henne, let’s say it again, Chad Henne. Breakout wide receiever Justin Blackmon. Scratch that he’s suspended. Cecil Shorts and rookie Marqise Lee. Toby Gerhart.
Simply put, this Jaguars squad does not end up only 10 points worse off with the Eagles by the end of the game. 14/1 about Zach Ertz opening the floodgates appeals for first td purposes.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
  • The 2/1 about a Titans victory in Kansas City is long gone, but 6/4 appeals. Outside of Jamaal Charles and Alex Smith, who plays offence for the Chiefs? Yeah I don’t know either.
  • Dallas Cowboys fan alert. Yes I’m one of those people you all hate. A Cowboys fan. But my team is one of the most punter-friendly in the league. Until the points line gets to astronomical proportions, over the points in any Dallas game is accumulator material with such a putrid defence in Big D.
  • Most bookies don’t take multiples on player rushing/receiving/passer yard lines, but if anyone likes to play that way. Rob Gronkowski under 87.5 receiving yards for the Patriots in Miami. 88 yards for a guy who’s been under the knife more times than a chopping board in recent years. A guy who is going to be on a pitch count no doubt in his first game back.
  • Detroit Lions -6 pts. **Insert Eli face here**
 SELECTIONS RECAP

CHICAGO – 6.5PTS – CJ Spiller first td scorer

MINNESOTA-ST LOUIS UNDER 43.5 PTS – Adrian Peterson first td scorer

PHILADELPHIA -10 PTS – Zach Ertz first td scorer

 

 

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