WEEK 4 BETTING PREVIEW RECAP
Another tidy week last week, with the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears lighting up the scoreboard, while Indianapolis blew out the hapless Tennessee Titans. Unfortunately the Carolina Panthers defensive decline continues as the total was well over in their clash with Baltimore. However we finally hit with a first touchdown selection, as Steve Smith stuck it right to his former teammates by catching a tipped pass and strolling in.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
The Atlanta Falcons were ripped apart to the tune of 41 points last time out against the somewhat offensively-challenged Minnesota Vikings, and now they travel to the Meadowlands to take on a rampant New York Giants with OVER 50 PTS appealing. The G-men finally found their grove the last twice, first putting up 30 against JJ Watt and the Texans defence, before destroying the Redskins in Maryland.
Aside from the destruction of Josh McCown and Tampa Bay, this Falcons defensive unit has let up 300 yards a game without registering a sack, so expect Manning and Co to do work. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have been able to score on opponents all season, so despite the tough duo of Prince Amukamara and Dominque Rodgers Cromarite, Matt Ryan should be able to negotiate enough points out of his offence to put up a fight and hopefully see the total OVER 50 PTS @ 10/11 as it finishes 31-24 in New Jersey.
Tight End Larry Donnell has really came out of nowhere, grabbing three touchdowns against Washington last time out. One more will do nicely, 9/1 to score first
CHICAGO BEARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Last season’s Carolina Panthers defence is a long way from where this year’s unit are. Luke Kuchely and his boys have given up 908 yards in their last two defeats against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. With Jake Cutler and the Bears rolling into town, OVER 45.5 PTS looks worthy of taking on.
Through one month, Cutler is on pace for 40 touchdown passes and 4,024 yards, so with further progression in Charlotte the Bears should be counted on to rack up more points, especially with Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall getting healthier each week.
Despite being dominated by Baltimore’s fearsome defensive line last time out, the Panthers offensive line should be able to cope better with a less-talented Bears outfit, with Cam Newton improving each week as he gets over his rib injury. The former-Auburn star is having his best season as an out-and-out passer, and if Ron Rivera finally decides to allow Newton to use his feet, he will add another dimension to this rather stale Panthers offence.
The line looks a little conservative here, and with Cutler enjoying his time once again in Marc Trestman’s offence, we’ll take a punt on the OVER 45.5 PTS @ 10/11 with Chicago taking it 27-20. Alshon Jeffrey has 169 yards and a touchdown the previous two games, we’ll take him for first score at 9/1.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Again the line here looks too low for a very defensively challenged Jags team going against an on fire Ben Roethlisberger, so lets jump on the OVER 47 PTS.
Despite the shock defeat to Tampa Bay last week, the Pittsburgh offence was rolling, putting up 24 points. Roethlisberger has completed 72.9% of his passes the past two weeks, including five touchdown throws against zero interceptions. Once again look for Antonio Brown to do work against this poor Jags defence, who gave up 10 catches and 135 yards to Keenan Allen a week ago.
Finally Blake Bortles was given the keys to the offence full time last week, and he performed admirably in his first NFL start against a tough Chargers defence. The play calling was a bit conservative, so hopefully back at home and with an easier match up on paper, Bortles has the shackles released and we see the points rain.
Jacksonville will notch their first win sooner or later with Bortles under centre, and it could well be this week with the suspect defence hindering Big Ben’s stellar work on offence. However the safer pick this week is the OVER 47 PTS @ 10/11 as this ends 27-23 either way. Allen Robinson is turning into Bortles favourite target. 12/1 appeals for first touchdown purposes.
- The upset picks in this section have been faring very well with the Dallas Cowboys thumping the Saints at odds against last week. A few quid on Kansas City Chiefs @ 9/4 to go into Santa Clara and topple the San Francisco 49ers takes the eye, given Kansas’ destruction of the Patriots this past Monday night.
- Peyton Manning goes berserk this week. Coming off a bye week against an Arizona Cardinals defence that has managed only one sack in three games, Peyton could have his way with the Cards. Drew Stanton is under centre once again for the visitors so this could be done by halftime. Scrolling through the list of markets on the game, over 2.5 first half touchdowns @ 4/6 looks buying money, but let’s lower the stake and raise the odds and go exactly 4 first half touchdowns @ 15/4.
- 40/1 is still readily available on the Dallas Cowboys to win the Superbowl. You may chuckle, but this running game looks legit and when the weather gets cold that’s always a great gameplan to hang your hat on. A Strong running game and lights out defence has been the blueprint for both Baltimore’s and Seattle’s Superbowl runs. Now if only Big D could find a defence from somewhere we may be onto something.