WEEK 11 BETTING PREVIEW RECAP
So the least said about Week 11’s selections the better. Denver were upset by St Louis, while Cleveland were also beaten at home and Robert Griffin III could only manage 7 points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, leading to Jay Gruden throwing his quarterback under the bus. Onwards we move to week 12, with the race for the playoffs really hotting up.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
My pre-season wager on Andrew Luck to be the NFL MVP at 28/1 has some legs considering the former Stanford man leads the league in passing yards. With top back Ahmad Bradshaw now on IR, look for Luck to put this team even more so on those broad shoulders of his. Indy put up 43 points in the first clash between these two early in the season, and a repeat performance is fancied, however this Jaguars outfit could have success as well, so OVER 50.5 PTS @ 10/11 kicks off this week’s slip.
Six of the last seven encounters between these two teams saw the total go under, however it was the game earlier this season that saw it easily over, with Luck notching over 385 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns. Another repeat performance could and should be expected of the number 1 pick. Despite losing Bradshaw and tight end Dwayne Allen, Luck still has plenty of targets available including TY Hilton who has burned the Jags in the past. The two games Hilton has played in Lucas Oil Stadium against Jacksonville saw the speedy wideout go for over a 100 receiving yards in each game. Couple that with the fact that Hilton has averaged 82.8 yards with 11 touchdowns across 26 career games indoors, the deep ball will be in play for this Colts offence.
Jacksonville will have spent plenty of this week studying the tape of New England running the ball down Indianapolis’ throat on Sunday Night Football, as the Pats dominated the Colts up front. Denard Robinson has really come on for the Florida side recently, running for 389 yards with four touchdowns on 72 totes (5.40 YPC) over his last four games. If Jacksonville can avoid being blown out early, then it could be another good day for the former Michigan Wolverine.
So OVER 50.5 PTS opens this week’s selections with a scoreline in the region of 34-20 to the Colts doing the job. As mentioned TY Hilton is money against the Jags at home, let’s hope he brings us the dough by going in for the first touchdown at 8/1.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Going back to the well with Cleveland again this week. Feel me once shame on you, feel me twice…It’s ok though as finally the Browns get to unleash the beast. Josh Gordon returns from his suspension and immediately slots in as the main pass catching weapon for Brian Hoyer. Both defences have been hit by injury as well as some downright poor play, so again let’s hope for points in the dome in Georgia. OVER 47 PTS @ 10/11 is next.
Let’s start with Gordon then. He immediately offers Cleveland a big body and big time playmaker on the outside. Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel have done a nice job with inside routes, screens and general quick hitters and have even done well when asked to stretch the field. Brian Hoyer ranks third in the league with completions of 20+ yards with 43 and that’s all without a legitimate downfield threat, or seam-stretching tight end. Now he gets his main man Gordon back, expect the top to be well and truly taken off the Atlanta secondary.
Despite being 4-6, the Falcons lead the disappointing NFC South, and have even managed to get the road monkey off their back, winning their last two on their travels. Now they return home with Matt Ryan back in his comfort zone under the roof in the Georgia Dome, expect plenty of yards and points out of this offence. The former Boston College man has thrown 10 touchdowns against only one interception this year at home, and he could well take advantage of a banged up Browns unit. Despite Joe Haden lifting his game the last month, the Browns don’t have much up front so this often-criticised Atlanta offensive line could have it somewhat easier this week allowing for Ryan to find star receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones.
OVER 47 PTS @ 10/11 looks good here, with Atlanta squeezing out a victory 27-23. No messing about, Josh Gordon to score first at 11/1 is a must-bet.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Never like taking under on a low line but it’s strength versus strength in this crucial NFC-West clash on Sunday in Seattle, with the NFL’s best two cornerbacks set to share the turf at Century Link Field in Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman. Drew Stanton did enough to lead Arizona to victory against Detroit last week, but going into Seattle against Sherman and the 12th man is a whole new ballgame. UNDER 41.5 PTS @ 10/11 rounds off week 12.
Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are pretty much all Seattle have on offence at the moment, after the departure of Percy Harvin and the off-season loss of Golden Tate. Lynch has been dominating recently and over the past four seasons the bulldozing back has scored 35 TDs across 30 home games compared to just 16 touchdowns in 28 games on the road, so Beast Mode should be a good bet to find the endzone against a very stout Cardinals defence. Arizona held DeMarco Murray under a tonne for the first time all season a few games back so Lynch won’t have it all his own way but don’t expect Seattle to get away too much from the gameplan.
Despite two first quarter scoring throws from Stanton, he didn’t lead Arizona to anymore scoring drives on offence the rest of the game and was also picked off twice. Up against the Legion of Boom and the 12th man it could be more tough sledding for Stanton. The run game of Arizona has also slowed down with Andre Ellington going over 4.0 YPC just once over his last eight games, while he’s averaging 1.76 yards per rushing attempt over his last two. Seattle showed an outstanding defence can carry you to glory last year, but they had more on offence than this current Cards unit has at the moment.
A low-scoring slobberknocker is likely in store in the Pacific North West this week, so UNDER 41.5 PTS @ 10/11 is attractive, with the home side taking it 21-17. Wilson on the QB keeper to score first at 16/1 with Paddy Power appeals.
- Great game in store live on Sky in the 6pm slot as the #1 ranked Lions D take on the Patriots in Foxboro. Despite Jonas Gray going off on the Colts last week, it could very well be Shane Vereen who has the most success on Sunday. Detroit has given up the 4th most receiving yards to backs with 520 this term, so look for the scat back rather than the bulldozer against this strong Lions front.
- Phillip Rivers has a rib injury according to Antonio Gates. Now he has the small matter of the St Louis Rams pass rush to deal with. Robert Quinn and co virtually shut down Peyton Manning a week ago. Any bets involving sacks stands out, while Rivers under 255.5 yards passing is also in play.
- The New York Giants have allowed the most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in the league this term. Now they host the juggernaut Cowboys attack led by DeMarco Murray. 6/1 to find paydirt first is a great interest bet for those up late on watching Sunday Night Football.