WEEK 12 BETTING PREVIEW RECAP

Close again in Week 12, hitting on two out of three selections, as Indianapolis and the Brutal Jacksonville Jaguars offence couldn’t muster enough points to see the total over. Atlanta-Cleveland did the business as did Arizona-Seattle but the full house wasn’t to be. Onwards we go to week 13 with a bonus Thanksgiving Day column to feast upon. Enjoy that Turkey everyone!

CHICAGO BEARS @ DETROIT LIONS

Detroit went into New England on Sunday with the NFL’s #1 ranked defence, but they were no match for Tom Brady and the Patriots. Now returning home, expect the dominant Lions front to be chomping at the bit to bounce back, with a shaky Bears offence to square off with. UNDER 47 PTS @ 10/11 opens our Turkey Day selections, with the Lions offence hardly firing on all cylinders either.

The first game between these two this season went under on the game total, ending 21-19 in the favour of Detroit in Soldier Field, while the last four Lions games has seen the total go under. Injuries to playmakers such as Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush have hurt first year play caller Joe Lombardi as Detroit hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a game since the opening weekend of the season. There could be some respite for Matt Stafford and co this week however, with doubts over key cover man Kyle Fuller and linebacker Lance Briggs for Chicago.

Chicago’s struggles on offence start and finish at the quarterback position. Jay Cutler has been hearing the boo birds in the Windy City this season with his Jekyll and Hyde like performances. Da Bears were shutout through the first half on Sunday at home against Tampa Bay, while Cutler again failed to spark the offence. The former Vanderbilt man has only three 300-yard passing games so far this season, while he has thrown multiple interceptions in five games.

Given the struggles of both offences so far this season, and the dominance of the Detroit defence UNDER 47 PTS @ 10/11 is a logical pick to open our slip, with Detroit taking this 24-20. First touchdown selection goes to Detroit’s lone bright spark on offence this term – Golden Tate @ 9/1.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS

A fantastic middle game in our Thanksgiving Day triple-header as NFC East joint-leaders and old rivals square off. So much is at stake in this one given the hugely competitive nature of the NFC conference this term, so expect both teams to come out fired up, with offence looking the likely order of the day at AT&T Stadium.  With that OVER 54.5 PTS @ 10/11 makes up the second selection of the day.

Despite being down four points with less than three minutes remaining agianst the Giants on Sunday, Tony Romo led the Cowboys down the field with consummate ease, finding Dez Bryant in the back of the endzone for the go-ahead score after some outstanding pass protection by his vaunted o-line. That line has paved the way for the NFL’s leading rusher in DeMarco Murray, but they haven’t impressed everyone around the league, including Eagles nose tackle Bennie Logan, who provided the ‘Boys with some bulletin board material earlier this week when he called out the big men up front. Look out for what is set to be a tremendous war in the trenches, but if Tony Romo does get time in the pocket expect him and Bryant to carve up a shaky Philly secondary that has allowed the third most passing touchdowns (24) and per-game passing yards (266.3).

The change from Nick Foles to Mark Sanchez under centre hasn’t slowed the Eagles offence, with Chip Kelly’s seemingly quarterback-proof offence still rolling along nicely. The former Jet signal caller has threw for over 300 yards in each of his 3 starts, though still had trouble with turnovers, being picked off twice in his last two games. If this game comes down to a quarterback battle of Romo v Sanchez, then the smart money would have to be on the Eastern Illinois alum.

The total has went over in the last four Eagles games and over in the last two Cowboys games and no let-up is to be expected this time around. OVER 54.5 PTS @ 10/11 is up next, Dallas knicking it 30-27, with slot man Cole Beasley overpriced at 25/1 to reach paydirt first, after notching his first of the year this past Sunday in New Jersey.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Don’t indulge in too much turkey and booze because we’ve another cracker of a game to finish off Thanksgiving Thursday. The NFC West could well be back up for grabs, with Seattle and San Francisco waiting to pounce on any further Arizona slip ups. The reigning world champions beat the Cardinals on Sunday and will look to continue that momentum against a Niners squad that struggled past the hopeless RGIII and the Redskins. Another NFC-West defensive battle is in store so UNDER 40 PTS @ 10/11 rounds off this week’s treble.

Russell Wilson hasn’t had much help on the outside this season, after the off-season loss of Golden Tate and the mid-season departure of Percy Harvin. Wilson and Marshawn Lynch have had to carry the load for the Seahawks while its much-hyped defence has had its own struggles. But the Legion of Boom look back to full strength, just in time for a crucial stretch run. Wilson hasn’t had his all way against this San Fran unit so far in his short career. His combined stats in against Vic Fangio’s D read 63-of-113 passing (55.8%) for 848 yards (7.50 YPA) and a 7:4 TD-to-INT ratio, with 25 scrambles for 74 scoreless yards. There’s been no drop-of either this term, with the 49ers ank No. 2 in pass defense and No. 1 in interceptions (16). It should be more of the same from Seattle: Lynch and Wilson making plays.

Somewhat of a mirror image also for San Fran quarterback Colin Kaepernick who’s also had problems against the Seattle D. Kaepernick has made four starts against Seattle and struggled in all four, combining to complete 61-of-117 throws (52.1%) for 699 yards (5.97 YPA) with a 3:7 TD-to-INT ratio, though he has some decent totals on the ground.

This will be a fistfight till the very end in Levi’s Stadium, with both defences looking to make their mark. UNDER 40 PTS @ 10/11 rounds off this week’s selections as Seattle go into Santa Clare and emerge 19-13 winners, with San Francisco Defence/Special Teams a speculative punt at 20/1 to score first.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
  • This could be a great chance of a breakout for Megatron this week up against Chicago’s undersized secondary. With Stafford struggling, his best bet would be to throw it up and let his main man make plays. Over 80.5 receiving yards looks smallish.
  • 272.5 passing yards looks low for Tony Romo given the troubles the Eagles secondary have had. As much as DeMarco Murray has led this Cowboys rushing attack well this year, whenever Dallas gets into a shootout type of game it’s Romo who they lean on and he could be slinging it a lot on Turkey Day.
  • As mentioned above, outside of Wilson and Beast Mode this Seattle offence is sparse. Over 18.5 carries is a great price and one of the bets of the day player performance wise for Lynch!